Deniz Adalı
December 2024 – Kaldıraç Issue 281
On November 5, 2024, Trump was declared as the winner of the US elections.
So what will happen?
After Trump raised his fist following the attempted assassination, some said that the results of the elections became clear. At that time, Biden was still running as a candidate, even though he was senile and a pedophile. Biden’s “senility” was widely ridiculed, but his being a pedophile was not brought up much, although it was revealed by his son himself. While he had not yet withdrawn, it was easy to conclude that Trump had won.
But when Kamala came on the stage with her dances, there seemed to be a tendency in favor of her. At that point, Trump, for one, named and announced Vance on his team. Vance, of course, was not a “very dear” supporter for Trump. But he is known to be close to different capital groups in the US, within the Trump front. Vance and some other names seemed to be the outcome of some kind of inter-monopoly agreement.
Eventually Musk stepped in and things started to become a bit different.
Nevertheless, Kamala, meaning Biden’s team, had a good chance of winning. Kamala must be considered not reliable enough. And accordingly, it is understood that some capitalist groups settled for Trump.
In fact, one of the influential aspects of the process is the situation the war policy of the US is facing which is pursued in order to maintain its hegemony or prevent the collapse of its hegemony.
The three fronts can be counted here.
Under Biden administration, the US has achieved part of its ambitions through the war in Ukraine. It has progressed greatly in turning Europe into a battlefield, it has established additional bases in Europe and, in fact, it has captured the political will of Europe, including Germany and France. This is the most important gain for the US side in the Ukraine war.
Yet, the US has not achieved the desired results from its military and commercial attacks on Russia in terms of isolating it. On the contrary, it has gone as wrong as they could have imagined, and Ukraine has turned from being a field to keep Russia busy to the opposite.
That sums up the situation on the first front. There could, of course, be many more details, but, frankly, they are not necessary at this point.
The second front is the Chinese front. We cannot say that the US has made progress on this front. It is certainly making progress with Japan and South Korea. But in both Japan and South Korea, as in Europe, the case is towards the surrender of political will to the US. Compared to Europe, it can be stated that it is a step behind.
The agreements and improving relations between Russia and North Korea are stabilizing the course to some extent. It could be mentioned that the US is also making progress in the Philippines. But in India, the situation shows an opposite trend.
The third front is the Middle East. The war in the Middle East, which is being waged openly by Israel and with the support of Turkey, has expanded. But nevertheless, the Palestinian resistance continues and the attacks on Lebanon are moving towards a new phase. But still, we have witnessed the piercing of Israel’s “iron dome” many times. It was breached by Yemen, by Gaza, by Lebanon.
Overall, it can be summarized as follows:
1- The US wanted to isolate Russia and constrain China. When the attacks against Russia failed, it was no longer possible to neutralize China. Russia and China have developed a closer and more gradual relationship.
2- BRICS became even more effective. Not only did a large number of countries express their willingness to join the BRICS, but the BRICS also surpassed the economic size of the G7 countries. This shows that the policy of isolating Russia did not succeed, and moreover, a focus has emerged around BRICS.
It is as if Trump’s “victory” has come into play in order to put things back together. Therefore, the term “new Trump era” may be an exaggeration.
Rather, it is to create room for recovery and political maneuvering. And there seems to be a temporary situation in which the neocons say yes to this policy.
This means the need for a new maneuver in the US war policy.
1- The view that the US policy “unites” Russia and China has emerged. Therefore, the policy of launching attacks against China rather than Russia is likely to come to the fore. This does not mean that the attacks against Russia will stop.
Instead of accepting a clear defeat in Ukraine, the US seems to be willing to take a step back and take a breath to strike again.
The economic embargo against China has not yielded any results, and it is unlikely to do so. Of course, a more effective war policy against China will be sought. In the aftermath of Trump’s victory, it was revealed that they were planning attacks within China.
It is apparent that they will try to avoid declaring their decisive defeat by easing the tension in relations with Russia. In this case, it is understood that they will prefer to formalize the defeat in Ukraine not as the defeat of the US, but as the defeat of Ukraine. Only if Russia lets its guard down, then they will unleash a more violent attack.
It appears that Europe is the most “upset” one in this situation. The neo-Nazis in Europe are likely to become very “upset” and of course they will launch a more violent attack in Europe first.
Already in Europe, a kind of “nationalism” seems to be gaining strength and this will mean the beginning of a new period for the development of civil war in each country. In this situation, the capital will embrace neo-Nazism even more.
The attacks against China are likely to escalate.
In this way, the US intends to drive a wedge between China and Russia.
Of course this is their intention. As they say, what is intended is not always destined.
2- US aggression will increase in the Middle East. This aggression will target Iran and Syria again. After all, this is the US policy. That is to say, on the one hand, the US is seeking relief by taking a step back in Ukraine, and on the other hand, it is calculating to increase aggression in the Middle East.
They are already carrying this out through the hands of Israel.
Now, with the Trump administration, a more aggressive policy will be implemented in the Middle East.
To summarize, it is not possible to expect a meaningful change or a radical shift in US policy.
When Trump lost and Biden won, Trump was declared a fascist and it turned out that Biden was no less fascist.
Same situation remains today. Biden was pro-war, what about Trump? So is he.
It was under Trump’s presidency that China and Russia were declared enemies. And after this declaration, the focus of the war has been moved to Ukraine due to the failure of the US to achieve its goals in Syria. Now, in Ukraine, they have failed to achieve a victory that would bring Russia on its knees, they have been defeated. And now they are leaving this defeat with its costs to Ukraine and Europe and trying to reorganize the war.
This new field is both China and its neighborhood and the Middle East.
They have already taken steps under the Biden administration to turn the war in the Middle East into a war against Iran. The genocide in Palestine, in its current form (in fact, it has been going on for 50 years), has been orchestrated under Biden and will continue under Trump.
In this war, the US and NATO will of course bring Turkey into play.
As soon as Erdoğan congratulated Trump, he immediately started talking about new operations against Syria. This is not a futile statement. Not in the strict sense that they will be able to do this, but this statement is being made based on the indications received from NATO and the US.
Hence, the attack on Iran will be combined with the attack on Syria. This is exactly what they want. This means the further entrenchment and expansion of war in the Middle East. Turkey is involved in this war. For this reason, the Palace Regime refers to “strengthening the internal front”. One side of the internal front is the state, but what about the other side? The other side is the working class, those who resist, those who oppose the order. All of them must be united under the banner of the revolutionary path of the working class. If there is an internal front, it means there is also an external front. It is not right to linger on waiting until the elections, on discussions about who will win the elections. “National interest”, ‘nationalism’, no matter with which religious sauce they are blended, are meant to turn us aside from this path, to bring us to our knees, to take us captive.
It should be noted that our discussion is not entirely about the new US policies. On the contrary, we are talking about different maneuvers within the US war policies. The US elections should be considered from this point of view.
“Trump is a racist,” it is said. No doubt. But is Kamala or Biden less racist? They say, Trump is some kind of fascist, fine, but is Biden less fascist? Isn’t everything happening around the world the clearest answer to that? Or is Scholz more democratic or Macron less fascist?
Each of them is pro-war.
No one of them is less pro-war than the other.
Because war is not the work of madmen. Hitler did not pursue a pro-war policy because he was mad. On the contrary, those who wanted war brought Hitler to power against the USSR.
The god of war is the capital itself. International capital, the West is pro-war as a whole. In all Western metropolises, the war industry is running full speed ahead. And this situation will not change under Trump period either.
The importance of the US elections lies precisely in understanding the new situations and positions emerging in this war politics.
The US is now in need of new maneuvers. This means repositioning its forces in the discourse of war. The US will tend to do this.
More severe economic and military measures will be taken against China.
But it seems that, as the BRICS example shows, the world also harbors a different tendency.
In this case, to conclude that the war will intensify does not require advanced knowledge. The war will intensify.
Suppose the US fails to achieve its objectives through Trump, it will change course again. And it is a mistake to assume that they will have to wait for the elections in, say, four years’ time. It is a mistake because it is incorrect to suppose that everything will go on as ordinary. Extraordinary times call for extraordinary attitudes and decisions.
Meanwhile, in almost every country of the world, the resistance of workers and laborers will widen. It will widen because exploitation will intensify in every country and war will increase its tendency to turn into civil war in every country of the world, even in the metropolises, that is, in the imperialist countries.
Ultimately, in the haze of war, the world is facing a period in which the working class will rise up again. And this process is bound to lead to the development of the workers’ movement in the most unexpected countries. Therefore, the world revolutionary movement, under whatever conditions, at whatever level of organization, is faced with the task of being ready for the coming class struggle.
Obviously, it is not right to rely on the results of the US elections. Therefore, it is not right to attribute to the US elections the importance that the rulers attach to them.
We as workers must be tasked with organizing a revolution that will shake the world. The way forward is not for the world proletariat to stand up and wait for a new wave of revolution, but to organize it itself, to organize the revolution itself.
There is no other way to stop the war. The only strength to stop the war is the world proletariat. The way to stop the war is a socialist revolution, to smash the bourgeois state machine and establish the dictatorship of the proletariat.
This is the way to transform the world into a world without war, without exploitation, without class.
No imperialist power can promise a future to the peoples. The peoples of the world, the working class of the world, must organize to demand the whole world.
The world desperately depends on the rising up of the working class. This is not only the way of salvation for the working class, but also for humanity and the planet.
History has accelerated, it is moving fast. The 10 years of normal periods seem to fit into one year. We are already experiencing this.
A ghost wanders in the haze of war. It is the ghost of revolution and communism. Almost every geography of the world is suitable and ready for the incarnation of this ghost.
No matter where the revolution begins, it has the possibility of spreading rapidly. The coming era is not only ripe for unprecedented massacres and wars, but also for great revolutions.
Revolution does not emerge by waiting.
Revolution is the effort of the organized masses, of the working class that stands up on a revolutionary course and fights around its revolutionary leading party.
