Deniz Adalı
January 2025 – Kaldıraç Issue 282
Syria has evolved into a new phase of the war that began in 2011. Starting on November 27, 2024, the attacks of HTS, FSA and other “jihadist gangs” resulted in the downfall of Damascus in a few days, about 8-9 days. Assad left the country.
The Syrian army has hardly resisted the attacks. The “jihadist gangs” reached Damascus by simply firing bullets into the air on the one hand, and being whitewashed, cleaned and polished by the Western media every kilometer they advanced on the other. In the cities they have captured, checkpoints have passed from the Syrian army to the “jihadist gangs”. The handover of the checkpoint meant the handover of the city. The power that the Western world, the world, called a “terrorist organization”, was whitewashed at every single stage and suddenly became clean.
If the fall of Damascus is going to be defined as “ saga”, the “saga” cannot be related to the war on the field. The Syrian army retreated, they advanced with vehicles. They have only covered a distance of 1 hour, maybe in 2 hours. In other words, they did not proceed at full speed, but as if they were following the “traffic rules”. At every stage, the appearance of the West’s cleaned men has been developed and reinforced. With every kilometer, the women they decapitated were forgotten, the children they destroyed were forgotten, the human trafficking was forgotten, all their atrocities were forgotten. So much so that the whole world saw how these “Islamist” groups, under the command of the US, could become murderers on demand and gentlemen in ties at will. After all, isn’t the sergeant from Texas like that, aren’t the US hegemons like that? Aren’t the international monopolies and their servants like this, don’t they have the same character?
They moved forward, and in response the gangs did not decapitate heads, attack women and children, or that kind of things, they did the bare minimum. At the same time, the FSA headed towards Tal Rifaat and Manbij. As a matter of fact, they (with Turkey backing them) got what they wanted. Mazlum Kobani said that they handed over Manbij to the FSA at the request of the US. The Syrian army handed over some territories to SDF-PYD forces. But developments are still ongoing.
Damascus has fallen. Assad has left the country. Many are overjoyed. Of course, those who will mourn for Assad are few. Indeed, we know what Assad is. But of course Assad is by no means the “bad guy” that the West describes him to be. Whomever the West vilifies so much, a pause should be in order to discuss the malice of the person. Assad’s replacements are Islamic gangs, despite all the polishing by the West. And certainly “Islam” has suffered a lot from these gangs and will suffer more. The people of Syria will also suffer a lot. This situation does not imply that Assad is any good, but HTS and the gangs cannot be whitewashed by declaring Assad bad. Western media could do this, but the peoples of Syria and the peoples of our region cannot and should not. Now, the Kurdish people must be ready to fight even harder than they did yesterday against ISIS gangs.
I think that even those who are not sorry to see Assad go should not be overjoyed. Let’s stop here for now. For sure, this is not an Assad-appreciation. Those who use fake, staged videos and images of torture to denigrate Assad should come and take a look at Turkish prisons. But the defeated becomes infamous, the winner becomes victorious. And Assad has been defeated. Moreover, we do not know why there was no resistance on the field. This is actually a valid question for both Russia, Iran and Syrian forces.
With the fall of Damascus, discussions began about how it was possible to achieve the occupation of Damascus with such speed, with such ease.
At the same time, discussions began about how Russia, Iran and Damascus Intelligence were asleep. During this discussion, naturally, Russia was said to be close to being defeated in Ukraine as well, and even to collapse.
It was discussed that Iran’s “resistance front” in Yemen, Lebanon, with forces like Hezbollah, Syria, etc., had already been defeated.
And meanwhile, of course, Israel’s occupation of Syrian territory was put into action. Although it is not discussed much. Obviously, it will soon be discussed more.
Assad is said to have gone to Russia with 135 billion dollars in cash.
The future of Russia’s base(s) in the Latakia-Tartus region has started to be debated.
As can be seen, this new situation of the war in Syria has to be considered in relation with the ongoing war in the world and the war in our region. It is not possible to discuss it in any other way. Therefore, in order to understand the current stage of the war correctly, we need to look at what is happening amidst the dust and smoke.
Let us try.
1
The attack in Syria, which started in Idlib and reached Damascus in a week, cannot be regarded as an attack by HTS, FSA, etc. This is not correct. This is a joint attack by the US-England-Israel and Turkey. These 4 countries are involved in the war, actively on the battlefield. The least apparent power among them is England. England has a “secret love” for war. For individuals, secret love is linked to platonic love, but for England, this secret love is linked to all kinds of deception, all kinds of brutality.
The US has always loved war. It is obvious that this love will only get deeper, and that it is not a fleeting one. This seems to be particularly difficult for the Russian and Chinese leaderships to understand. Russia and China seem to view the changes in the US administration from Biden to Trump as a chance for peace. But this is not the case.
The US has always loved war.
Because the age of monopolies demands this. The so-called capitalist is capital in human form. Capital loves domination, it has to love it. Even for the profits of the weapon monopolies, they love war. But it’s not just that. That is its nature. How many underprivileged people die in war is not and has never been a concern of the imperialists. International law, a law that Russia attaches great importance to, becomes meaningless in the law of war. Ultimately, it should be clear that they will not give up on this war policy.
Especially today, war is seen as the only way out of the crisis, the only way out for the US not to lose its hegemony.
Yes, in the US, different interest groups, different groups of capital have different positions. But this does not make Trump better than Biden, as one might think. One is more fascist than the other, the other one is more fascist than the other. In reality, the fascist state organization that developed in Germany before the Second World War has always existed in all imperialist states since then, at least since the establishment of NATO. The existence of the USSR prevented them from being so reckless, but that is no longer the case, and no imperialist power acts with “humanitarian” values, as Russia and China think. They never did, and they never will.
Yes, in the US, the reason for the beginning of Trump’s administration is the defeat in Ukraine. The USA and NATO are defeated in Ukraine. This defeat necessitates a change in war policies. But this does not imply a period of peace. After all, yesterday they refused to accept their defeat in Syria too. Today they do not want to accept defeat in Ukraine.
But are they completely wrong?
If you take a look at what is going on in Syria, the attitude of not accepting the defeat was “ beneficial”. Today, they seem to have succeeded in reversing the situation in Syria. There is no need to speak prematurely, yes, but this is exactly the case at this stage of the war. We will come back to this point.
When Obama handed the power over, before the Trump era began, they took highly effective measures. This was also recognized at that time. The USA state tradition, the dominance of monopolies, the imperialist hegemony, does not allow for such radical changes. This should not be so difficult to understand. It is normal for an American admirer on the street to get fed up with Biden and have false hopes for Trump’s return. But it is beyond comprehension for Russia and China to be illusioned on this issue.
International capital, the world monopolies and the collective imperialist West as their representative see the way out of the crisis and the continuation of the capitalist system in the colonization of Russia and China. And it is clear that they will do their best for this purpose. This is where they see the way out. Therefore, there may be a change in their war policy, but there can be no change in continuing the war policy. For that, they would need a clear, unambiguous defeat. In our view, this is a wave of socialist revolution.
The USA is telling Russia and China to stand by until January 20th, the day Trump will take office. Trump appears to be sending some “positive” messages. Those who are very keen on these messages may find some hope there. But in the meantime, the USA, through the Biden administration, is stepping up the attacks.
Their first move came from Ukraine. They started using long-range missiles over Ukrainian territory. According to Russia, long-range missiles cannot be launched without the use of the USA, France and Britain, the forces that produced them. In other words, they used them directly. However, Russia and China did not respond to England, the United States and France. It responded with Oreshnik missiles on the territory of Ukraine, where they are located. The Oreshnik missiles must have made NATO and Western imperialism think. But the nuclear missiles did not emerge and, moreover, the war continued on Ukrainian territory. So these missiles did not explode, for example, in the England, or in a USA extension.
One has to imagine that they have carried out other attacks as well. It is unlikely for us to be able to see these attacks in their full dimensions. But for example, if you look at what is going on in South Korea, it is clear that they have other attacks. Even though their coup attempt in South Korea backfired, it was actually part of these preparations for war. It was designed in order to attack North Korea. And of course they will continue to do so.
Trump first addressed Canada, telling them to come and become the 51st state.
Not only that, he addressed Mexico and asked them to become probably the 52nd state as well. Thus, the US is expressing its desire to expand.
Israel, Turkey, South Korea, Ukraine are being deployed as distant satellites, as if they are states of the United States.
And the last attack, of course not the last, but as of now the last attack has been launched in Syria. Syria has fallen in a total of 10 days.
And in Syria, Russia, Iran, indirectly China are among the losing sides. It goes without saying that Assad has lost.
The USA is the winner of the war. Israel, England and Turkey are among the winners at this stage of the war.
2
The USA, which loves war very much, declared victory.
England, which loves war secretly, declared victory, quietly.
Turkey, which is obliged to love war as a hitman, declared victory publicly.
Israel, as the US’s war force in the Middle East, declared victory. Biden, the leader of the former administration, said about a year ago “if we hadn’t established a state of Israel in time, we would have established it today”.
Colani is now in charge of Syria. Yesterday he was a terrorist. Today he is the president of Syria. In Israeli camouflage, he talked about the liberation of Syria. When Israeli forces are moving forward, he remains silent. And of course he is a handy force for the United States.
It can be said that the Kurds have achieved gains. One should not be so sure about this. But it does appear to be the case. In a field without Russia, the Kurds, even if they act on the alignment of the USA and Israel, will not be welcomed as warmly as before. Step by step, they will be demanded to hand over their gains. Of course, they have a power, an organized power, and this is very precious. As much as they have their own power, it is very precious. But it is not an automatic process for today’s gains to be written on the score sheet of future gains. Especially when the relationship with the USA is being developed.
Syria is now a colony.
After Ukraine, the neo-Nazi regime is now in Syria.
The USA, England, Turkey and Israel are the ones who declared victory.
Israel has immediately invaded Syrian territory.
Turkey immediately took action against the Kurds. To a certain extent, for now. It will not be satisfied with Manbij.
According to Russia, there is the Astana process. The Astana formula entrusted the Islamic gangs to Turkey. And now Russia is saying that it was once again deceived by Erdogan. Or so say many analysts. They are not explicitly declaring that the Astana process is dead. And for now their main problem is the bases. Israel is bombing the area where the bases are located. It is also clear that they will launch all kinds of attacks through Ukraine at the same time. After all, there are 45 days until Trump. For 45 days they can attack.
Officially on the other hand, Russia is probably talking indirectly, if not directly, with the United States, but directly with Turkey and Israel, in order to protect its bases in Latakia. Russia is now trying to limit the damage at some point.
Russia is the loser of the war. Even though they say “we backed Assad”, they have actually lost power in the Syrian arena. Now, it is not possible to explain this loss with “Erdoğan’s betrayal”.
Russia, in our opinion, did not make a deal with the USA from the very beginning, that is, before November 27, when the attack began. Because, if Ukraine is what it will get in such a deal, this is a much worse situation. Because the loser in Ukraine is the West, the NATO, the USA. Does taking something in exchange for Ukraine actually imply a worse situation than it seems? It is not possible for us to know this.
But in the current stage of the war, Russia’s bargaining for its bases will extend to Ukraine. Because this is a war that goes beyond Syria. Of course, it is debatable how Russia will respond in the near future. But this discussion does not eliminate the defeat in Syria.
The loser of the war is of course the Syrian people, the Syrian people with all its components. Because the imperialist USA-England, their hitmen Israel and Turkey will never bring about a better result than Assad. Syria is now a colony. The Turkish state, with the hands of its contractor companies, intends to get much more than its share of the Syrian cake. There is no way out for the Syrian people, except for organizing a deep resistance, except for organizing an overt socialist uprising. Such a resistance is very difficult given the shocking developments. It is difficult or very difficult, but it is the only way out. The Kurds will of course stay away from this resistance in order to protect their own position. Because now the Kurds will be faced with the problem of defending themselves against both the forces on the ground and the USA.
Iran is, of course, among the losing powers of the war. And now, because of the situation on the Russian and Chinese front, the war against Iran is even closer. While Syria was still there, it was more difficult to attack Iran. Especially for Turkey to engage in a hot war against Iran in this war was more difficult. But today this became easier. The Turkish state, the Palace Regime, will now engage in war policies more rapidly. Erdoğan’s declaration of victory also means that his fears of Russia have diminished. He himself says that Assad has packed his bags and fled. This is also his preparation. Unlike Assad, Erdoğan is worried about his money. Therefore, today he will attack with all his might, and the pie he is being offered is even more appetizing. This is why the war against Iran is much more pressing, it is in the top priority.
One point must be made here. The Western press, the monopoly media, is shameless, a lie machine, a center for creating darkness. They claim that the leader of a country that has been at war for 12 years left the country with 135 billion dollars. If it consists of $100 bills each, if one $100 bill weighs 1 gram, that means 1 million 350 thousand kilos. I think the volume is even greater in terms of transportation. In terms of Boeing’s cargo planes, that’s 1,700 airplanes. In terms of trucks, that’s 15,000 trucks. Isn’t it a question how this is transported? Moreover, in a country that has been at war for 12 years, in a country under embargo, where will Assad be able to get this money? How long will it take to load this money onto planes or trucks? But how Erdogan will transport his own money is a question. That is why it is rumored that Erdoğan has moved his money to many different countries.
Today it is known that Erdoğan’s statements that he wants to meet with Assad are lies. Erdoğan, who addressed Assad, is now drunken with victory. Not to mention the ceremonies of praying in the Umayyad Mosque.
Back to Iran, although Iran continues to talk about the “resistance front”, the situation seems to have become critical. When Iran was piercing Israel’s iron cage, there was little chance that Israel would attack its nuclear facilities in return. But now this possibility is strong, much stronger.
Certainly, it is not possible to think that Iran will remain silent against these attacks. However, there is also the question of how far China and Russia, who are hesitant to provide economic aid in Syria, will stand up for Iran. Moreover, Iran, with its Islamic regime, is waging a war against its people too. And unless Iran rises up with a socialist revolution, this situation will not change either.
Now, the Western front, the USA, England, NATO will launch new attacks with the help of Israel. In Turkey, neo-Ottomanism will find a boost. Israel is now even more morale boosted. The old and new USA administration’s support for Israel will also increase. In this case, attacks against Iran will increase. Obviously, intervention in the Iraqi arena will also develop for this purpose. Among the Kurds, the Barzanist line or those who pin their hopes on the USA seem to have strengthened their hand. Now, all over the Middle East, the USA will prepare for new moves. And, of course, the target of the war will become even plainer as Iran. The USA will try to redesign all the forces on the ground for the war against Iran.
3
This means that the war has reached a new phase. The war will become even more dimensional.
The Syrian arena will never become peaceful. It is likely that it will take time for a deep resistance to begin in Syria.
A Kurdish structure has already begun to take shape in the PYD region. The only obstacle to the emergence of a structure like the one in Iraq is the Kurdish revolutionary line. But it is clear that those among the Kurds who are linked to the USA, or who pin their hopes on the USA, will become even “stronger”. In spite of everything, the resistance there is different from the one in Iraq in many ways. On the one hand, the massacre policies of the Turkish state will be unleashed at every opportunity, and on the other hand, the USA will continue to appear as a protector. This dual situation represents an extremely challenging period for the Kurdish resistance. The presence of Turkish forces in Syria will increase even more. The aspirations of Damascus becoming a Turkish city will rise to the sky.
Meanwhile, there is also Israel’s dream of Damascus. Consequently, Turkey and Israel have become, and are intended to become, neighbors.
No matter what happens, it is certain that the imperialist West cannot and will not be a friend to any people, and will only think of their own interests. Therefore, neither yesterday nor tomorrow will the USA be a protector for the Kurdish people. If any people in the Middle East, not just the Kurds, are in their present situation, it is already the result of the colonialist policies of the Western powers. This does not prevent any people from fighting the state in the land they live in. But this war, if it is not combined with a clear attitude and war against imperialism, will not and cannot lead to a breakthrough.
Let us not be misunderstood, every Kurdish achievement is important. But is what has been achieved a real achievement? This is the question. Otherwise, the Kurdish people having a state, having their own government is not and cannot be negative for any revolutionist. But this cannot happen with the support of the USA. This must be clear.
The USA and the West want to drag the entire Middle East into chaos. Without this chaos, they cannot establish their new order. For this purpose, of course, they will use every force against each other. Without the common struggle of all peoples against imperialism, no way out is possible. The anti-imperialist struggle of the peoples, no matter how difficult it is in reality, is meaningful within the liberation struggle of the working class in the whole region. Every area in the region is increasingly producing a great objectivity for the struggle of revolutionary socialism. within this objective situation, the most organized forces are the Kurdish revolutionaries. In any case, it is necessary to think of the whole region as the field of revolutionary politics. This necessitates a socialist revolutionary attitude that does not reject national identities but transcends them. A revolutionary line of resistance is necessary that encompasses the entire Middle East, the Balkans and the Caucasus. It is obvious that this is difficult. But there is no other way.
The USA’s BOP project is still in effect. The USA, through Israel and Turkey, wants to take the steps it wants in the Syrian arena. It is evident from the latest war moves that they have come a long way in this regard. It is not for nothing that HTS acted as if it changed its identity in a few days. This change and the takeover of Damascus are two parts of the same process. Today, in the Syrian field, everyone will try to bring down the leaders of the other side. The fact that Israel is immediately trying to destroy the entire infrastructure of the Syrian army is the most concrete proof of this. Their assassination policy in this regard is also known. They will add new ones to their known attacks in order to disable every leadership, every organized force that stands in the way of their goals.
Therefore, it is not correct to declare that the Syrian war has come to an end. The war has, of course, reached a new stage. The old forces of the Syrian state are no longer present. Therefore, the war will continue between the “victorious” forces. It is not even known how many groups there are within HTS alone. The structure in Idlib has now spread over a wider area. It is also unclear how many of these groups are of Syrian origin. These groups are looters, but there is not much left to loot in Syria.
4
At this point, the course of the war around the world becomes important as well. It appears that the war in Ukraine is in another phase. And it is understood that Europe will become more involved in the war. The measures Belarus is trying to take are an indication for this.
At the present stage of the war, the Ukrainian war has reached Russian territory. The continued launching of missiles is proof of this.
And the actions in South Korea indicate that new operations will be launched against China.
Thus, it is not enough to stick to the developments in the Syrian war alone. It is obvious that in the Middle East, the USA front, NATO and the Western front are making progress. And this will have great consequences. But the USA will not only develop the war against Iran in the Middle East, it will also organize the war against China. Certainly, after their victory in Syria, the USA and the Western front have gained much more opportunities to fight against Iran. Israel and Turkey will now be eager to take more effective steps against Iran. Lebanon will be further encircled from every aspect. Russia’s loss in the Syrian theater is a serious loss of position.
In this war, Turkey will act much more comfortably with the USA front. And this war will also have repercussions in the Caucasus.
The war is getting more and more dimensional.
It is certain that there will be more developments in the Middle East during this war process.
It is also definite that we will witness the process of the rising up of the world working class in the midst of this war process. For this reason, it is not enough just to look at the war, to look at the forward or backward developments on the battlefield. Revolutionary socialists have to fix their eyes on the workers’ movement, the struggle against the system, which is developing in the haze of the war.
This is the main agenda of the revolutionary struggle. Stubbornly, patiently, we must devote our revolutionary energy to the organization of the working class. In this dust and smoke, in this river of blood, the red banner of the socialist revolution is rising. Hence, it is necessary to commit to the line of revolution and socialism, to focus on the organization of the revolution energetically.
No matter where in the world, the revolutionary workers’ movement cannot play its role by relying on another force. It is primary for the peoples of the world, for the working class of the world, to organize its own power, to rely on its own actions. This power is the one that will turn the world upside down. All the workers of the world, all the peoples of the world are brothers and sisters. And the revolutionary action of the world working class is both necessary and sufficient to radically change the world.
