As it is known, we have always remarked that it is uncertain whether the elections will be held or not. On this issue, we tried to warn mostly the revolutionaries, the left. Our insistence was: The Palace Regime would not go by election. For this reason, while it is not clear whether the election will be held or not, the fact that the revolutionaries, more broadly the left, indexes the struggle to the electoral agenda will actually mean that they are tilting themselves towards the right. Instead of advocating the independent revolutionary politics of the working class, choosing between the People Alliance or Nation Alliance or the Palace Regime and the bourgeois opposition to it, both of which are fed from the same place, is in fact to deny oneself.
Moreover, in our opinion, the election can only be made at the request of the US or if the USA, for some reason, approves the request of EU, namely Germany and France. In our opinion, elections may not be held without the order of the US.
In our country, elections are nothing more than the people’s approval of those elected by the masters (NATO, US).
Those are what we defend, however, Erdoğan signed the election decree on March 10th, as he announced at the beginning of February. And accordingly, there will be an election on May 14th. Moreover, the Supreme Election Council (YSK) visited the earthquake area and examined it (whenever they could do this examination) and decided that the election will be feasible. Thus, the election process was began.
This is the scene that we face.
Let’s try to take a closer look at the process while the election decision has already been taken.
1
Turkey is a colony. Skipping this fact like it doesn’t exist won’t work out. If the much-repeated phrase, fully independent Turkey, means that Turkey is a little dependent, a little independent, it’s poppycock.
Turkey is a colony.
Every colonial country is not the same, it cannot be.
Turkey is a joint colony. As in the phrase Seven Husbands for Hurmuz, it depends politically on the US, economically on the EU.
Until yesterday this was not a problem. It wasn’t, because USSR stood and anti-communism had united the entire imperialist camp. That united imperialist camp appeared before us as NATO and it was not so easy to see the contradictions between the major imperialist states/powers that made up that camp. However, when events such as the 1971 crisis occurred, Germany, France, lesser Britain and Japan would try to stand up to the United States. For instance, they would tell the US that it’s printing dollars without backing it. The United States would reject these objections as Soviet lies.
Whereas USSR does not exist anymore, Russia and China, although they are independent great powers thanks to their socialist past, are not socialists and were quite eager to integrate into the capitalist system. That was the case in the 1990s, 2000s, until 2008.
In this period, starting from the 1990s, within the imperialist camp, namely the US, Germany, Japan, France and England (these are the main ones, Italy, Canada etc. are not counted because they do not have a very important role; it may be important to count them in a singular event or process, such as Libya for example, but in general terms, it is enough to consider these five) we began to see that others started gathering strength in order to protect their own interests against the US hegemony. In the 2000s, the contradictions between these imperialist powers became even more apparent. US hegemony continued to erode and this erosion even accelerated.
The holistic and general development of the subject has been discussed many times in Kaldıraç pages and these discussions continue. This is necessary. Because the balance of power is constantly changing. Therefore, it is necessary to constantly address the issue.
But the point that interests us under this heading is the reflection of this process on Turkey, on Turkey as a jointly colonial country.
The question is: Will Turkey come under the control of Germany and the EU, which owned its economy after the dissolution of the USSR, or will it come under the full control of the USA, which has the political (army, bureaucracy, police, political parties, judiciary, etc.) sphere? In other words, Turkey’s colonial character will not change, but its owners will decrease. Which one will be the sole and new owner?
We know that a war is going on in this respect. Italy had carried out a clean-hands operation to bring Gladio under its control. At the same time, the Susurluk incident was detonated by the EU in Turkey. In this way, the liquidation of the forces loyal to the US should have been the aim. But presumably, we may all remember together that this was not achieved. And Susurluk is a part of this process. The entire left, the liberal left is grumbling on and on that the AK Party is a US project. But what does this project aim at? This project, in fact, aims to ensure US dominance, to create new riches accordingly, and to liquidate the forces within the state that are no longer useful to the US. This is the project.
The AK Party is a project, a US project, and its aim is not to enrich Erdoğan or to establish a sultanate for Erdoğan. Thinking like this is to understand neither the state nor imperialism. Did the US prepare a project to compose a playing field for Erdoğan, or for its own interests? It is not even necessary to ask; of course, it’s for their own benefit. Syria, Iraq, Libya policies are not the policies of the Turkish state. As the German Stern magazine said, Erdoğan is an arsonist and his owner is the US, the torch was placed on his hand by the US. Erdoğan and his family have managed to get rich with a little trickery, other than that, Erdoğan has no ingenuity.
This means that if the revolution is not on the agenda, Turkey cannot continue on its way forever as before. This format is over. Now there is a redistribution of colonies. This is the world war between the imperialist powers. (Today this struggle has changed direction, the entire Western front, including Japan, is trying to overcome the deep crisis of the capitalist system by turning China and Russia into colonial countries.)
2
The Palace Regime stepped in at one stage of this process. The Palace Regime was activated because the AK Party project could not function normally. The US has decided to use the Turkish state as a hitman. It imposed an appropriate organization. The Palace Regime is not Erdoğan’s invention. This sketchy transition actually came about because the usual methods didn’t work.
This must be well understood. This sultanate is not a one-man dictatorship or whatever. These considerations mean dealing with the subject in a very figural way. That the decisions come from Erdoğan’s mouth never means that the decisions were taken by him.
Thus, this situation is not limited to the gang of five. This is a reflection of the will of the entire capitalist class. It is the protection of their interests by extraordinary methods.
There are two more developments that put the Palace Regime into action. The first one is the Kurdish resistance, which has become regional. Ignoring this, the character of the Palace Regime cannot be explained. MHP-AKP fascism is not a correct assessment. Yes, it reveals the fascist character of these forces, but there is a possibility that it may obscure the true character of the Palace Regime.
The second development is the resistance process that started with the Gezi Resistance. We can also call this the awakening process of the people, workers and laborers. Of course, this is not a conscious, organized process like the Kurdish revolution. They cannot be compared as such. Gezi is a spontaneous social explosion. But it has upset the balance that the system has established on anti-Kurdishness. Many leftist organizations, including the CHP, are united on the issue of anti-Kurdishness. The Gezi process, in fact, started to break this anti-Kurdishness and nationalism with the continuity of the resistances. The resistance has paved the way for the learning of the masses, and it still does. This is what spoils the chemistry of the state. In the past, the Turkish state, which tried all means to fight against the Kurds, now has to wage a war in the West. The important thing is not that the working class is unorganized in the face of this war. Although it is a potential force, that is to say that it has not yet taken its place in the mass struggle as a practically organized revolutionary political force, the working class, women and youth are a great threat to the system.
The earthquake process is an example of this.
They did not bring the army and the police into the field, considering the possibility of getting closer of the army and the police to the people. This is not the result of their incompetence. Rather, it is the sovereign mind. The sovereign does not act humanely, it acts to save and maintain its own sovereignty. For this reason, they did not bring help to hundreds of thousands of people for two or three days. They blocked the volunteers and activated the SADAT forces, the ISIS forces. For this reason, we state that saying there is no state in the field, asking where the state is wrong. The state is exactly this. It is the one who left you and the people for dead under the rubble, it massacres people. It is the fear inside the state pushes them on this path. The Palace Regime is exactly this. It is an extraordinary state organization. Therefore, it does not respect the law, it also violates its own laws.
3
I know, I still couldn’t arrive at the election. A little patience.
In order not to lose its disintegrating hegemony, the US turned to war policies with all its might. It is not just that the US declared war on X country. No. This means that the entire capitalist world, and then the whole world, turns to war policies.
The US, the imperialist masters are organizing a war by putting Russia and China on the target and trampling on its own rules. To impose war is no longer an option for them, it is almost a necessity.
The US will not put aside its hegemony in a gentle and peaceful manner. Therefore, war is almost a mandatory option for the US.
Afghanistan, Iraq, then Libya, and the latest Syrian war are the products of the US’ desire to maintain its hegemony over the world. But when it comes to Syria, Russia and China stepped in and landed on the field. After Russia landed on the field, the US did not back down from its war policies. Undoubtedly, there are those in the US who find these war policies wrong, at least as it stands and at least today. But in the end, the US state put these war policies into action.
The US simply puts NATO forces and Japan under its control, making them no threat to itself, and presents them the plans to partition Russia and China.
Thus, the war continues in another form.
In Ukraine, Ukraine and Russia are not at war. No. On the contrary, all NATO and Russia-China collide. The reason why China is not directly involved in Ukraine is because Russia is enough for this war and also it avoids feeding both of their war policies.
The US has taken control of Europe in this way, Germany and France are now in a state of incomplete power. It is as if their own will has disappeared.
The US is not waging this war as a world war openly.
In fact, this is the Third World War.
But the US, which is waging the war, conducts this war in the form of proxy wars. While the Ukrainian people are paying the price of the war, the Neonazis are on the battlefield. The Ukrainian state is a gang state. It is similar to ISIS forces. ISIS is also one such war machine.
The Turkish state, organized as the Palace Regime, is grounded on these war policies. The Palace Regime is not only plunderer and looter, but also an organization based on war policies. All the bourgeois, all the monopolies, have tasted profits combined with blood and support the policies of war.
4
This is the reason we state that Erdoğan will not leave until the US says yes.
We have expressed this view many times as: Idlib ends, Erdoğan leaves.
The reason for these views is the policies of war.
The US does not want to stand back from its war policies in our country. Yes, it’s unable to win with its war policies, but it can prevent losing. The politics of war feeds the tendencies of alienation from the US throughout the region. This is the dissolution of hegemony. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization also affects the Middle East. Most recently, the extensive economic agreements between China and Saudi Arabia are signs of this. Most recently, in February 2023, agreements between Iran and Saudi Arabia came to the fore. These agreements could even mean the end of the war in Yemen, for example.
In this case, the US, for example, with the Kılıçdaroğlu option, cannot carry out these war policies. Kılıçdaroğlu’s arrival means an obligatory change in the Syria policy. Of course Germany would want that. But, how realistic is it for Germany to end the Syrian war through Kılıçdaroğlu, when it has surrendered its will to the IS in Europe? It is a question and it is important.
Now, without a joint agreement between the US and the EU, the election is not possible. It may be something similar to election, but we haven’t gotten there yet, we will get there in the later parts of the article.
Could the US be withdrawing from these war policies? In any case, Erdoğan has announced the election date. In this case, since Erdoğan’s chances of being elected are weak, and even if he is elected, his legitimacy will be a matter of debate, is the US taking a step back from its war policies?
We don’t think so.
To understand this, it is necessary to look at Ukraine, Taiwan.
There are moves to intensify the war in Ukraine. The Western alliance, the NATO powers, which made a show in Warsaw, actually once again said yes to US policies. Now, both Romania and Poland in particular are in a tendency to become battlegrounds.
Russia intervenes for peace talks between Syria and Türkiye. All very well but can this step that is logical for the Turkish state, be taken despite the US?
Under normal circumstances, Kılıçdaroğlu and the bourgeois opposition should pronounce withdrawal from Syria. There is no other way to send Syrians to their homeland. But the bourgeois opposition is unconditionally behind all the war policies of the Palace. Again, normally, those who say that Putin supports Erdoğan should actually say that Putin should support Kılıçdaroğlu. In our opinion, the left and liberal left are wrong on this issue as well. Putin or Russia doesn’t seem to be in the least interested in supporting Erdoğan. Their main interest is to dissolve NATO. In this respect, the existence of the Turkish state as an occupying power in Syria actually means that the Turkish state has its back to the wall. The Turkish state, whose head is in the US and whose tail is caught in Syria by Russia, is suffering for this reason.
For the same reasons, Kılıçdaroğlu praises NATO and says that NATO means democracy. In this country, NATO has had a hand in every massacre since at least 1950. To ignore this and say that NATO means democracy is actually revealing its own color.
In summary, the war policies of the US are not shelved, and in this case, the Turkish state will act on behalf of the US as a hitman. For this reason, the continuation of the Palace Regime is a necessity for the US and the masters, for NATO.
No matter how much Kılıçdaroğlu and Akşener (Joker Sister) give guarantees to Erdoğan in case Erdoğan loses, the public reaction that will emerge in the case of an Erdoğan defeat will lead to the trial of Erdoğan and the trial of the Palace Regime. Already, the left believes in this and supports Kılıçdaroğlu.
This is seeing the election without seeing the war. And it is full of errors.
5
Will there be an alection?
It is a question, and we think it’s a fair one. The left, the liberal left, who have started to raise the hope of Kılıçdaroğlu by locking all their activities on the election agenda, do not even want to hear this question. However, it is pertinent.
It will be remembered. Many writers, many intellectuals, many political left figures thought that the Palace would increase the pressure through a process like that of June 7th-November 1st process. There are probably people who still think so. We, on the other hand, were saying, and still are saying, that yes, a system of oppression would be put into effect, but as we are already under conditions of the state of emergency, this system of oppression would be different, and that the former would not work due to the workers an d laborers who started and continue resistance. In our opinion, it is more likely that we will see more politically banned persons-parties and assassinations. Still, this probability is very, very high.
In this case, three scenarios emerge.
The first is the postponement of the elections due to the war. While Erdoğan has said that the election will be on May 14th, while he is intended for the election, if the Turkish state enters into a war with two missiles, all the bourgeois opposition, namely the Nation Alliance, will approve the cancellation of the election with the motive and rhetoric of national interest. This is one of the possibilities.
The second is that Erdoğan stole the election. This steal can happen by destroying chests if cheats are not enough. We know that the issue is not with the votes put in the ballot box, but the votes coming out of the ballot boxes. It is clear that there are many ways to do this.
Let’s pause here before we move on to the third scenario.
They claim that if Erdoğan wins in this way, it will not be legitimate.
This seems very strange to us. This must be going bananas. As if Erdoğan was legitimate on June 7th? Or were the results of the referendum legitimate? Or, when İnce said “the man won” on election night, did that legitimate Erdoğan’s win?
Will the Palace Regime, which does not show respect to any law and does not see harm in breaking every law, feel bound to the election laws and what will come out of the ballot box?
Why is HUDA PAR being called out? If HUDA PAR is included in the alliance, will Erdoğan’s vote increase with this? As if HUDA PAR had not been included in the alliance, would it still not have voted for Erdoğan? If so, why are they taking HUDAPAR in and disturbing some circles within the AK Party? Wouldn’t involving HUDA PAR openly to the alliance lose more votes than it would bring? Because it has no votes to bring, those votes are already theirs; under all circumstances. Putting HUDA PAR on stage is not to threaten, if the expression is appropriate, but to show a weapon. This should urge us think about the possibility of destroying the ballot boxes. However, as our left sees Kılıçdaroğlu as a savior, their eyes are blind and their minds are astonished. But we invite you to think about it anyway.
Likewise, the fact that the state is active in the earthquake zone with open civil war tactics should make one think. This cannot be done for a vote. This is the fear that surrounds the Palace, and in fact, they do not flee in fear, they attack in fear. The fact that Çakıcı’s men openly reveal their visit to the gendarmerie commander is precisely the indication of this civil war attitude, it is the defense of the state policies of massacre. The earthquake is not a disaster, what happened in the earthquake, the attitude of the state after the earthquake are exactly the massacre policies themselves. That’s why, there is no discussion of legitimacy in the Palace Regime. Moreover, the bourgeois opposition has become silent many times when it heard the voice of the state, there are dozens of proofs of this. Did the bourgeois opposition take to the streets in illegitimate elections? On the contrary, they consider themselves tasked with extinguishing the public’s reaction. They say to the people, do not go out on the street, there will be a civil war.
There is, of course, a third scenario too. The process that will begin after the election, for example, can fortify the Palace Regime with a coup.
It is possible to increase these possibilities.
But instead of counting, this should be said clearly: The Palace Regime did not come with elections and will not go with elections. The issue is not the Erdoğan issue. It is possible for them to continue the business by replacing Erdoğan with another name.
It is a great risk to dream crudely about elections without seeing the politics of war.
6
Now, let’s look at the Joker Sister. Why did Akşener suddenly leave the table with an attitude that suggests as if Kılıçdaroğlu’s candidacy was a surprise to her, as if should the candidate be Imamoğlu he would have won, that Kılıçdaroğlu could not win, but Imamoğlu would?
Well, Kılıçdaroğlu’s candidacy is not a surprise. Especially, it is by no means a surprise for Akşener.
Joker Sister, suddenly pretended to leave the table. This is a tactic of killing several birds with one stone. Why did she do this at the cost of embarrassing herself? If it’s not childish to sit back to the table through a campaign to make İmamoğlu and Yavaş vice presidents, getting up from the table should be a joke.
The Joker Sister pretended to leave the table and immediately the left parties began to openly support Kılıçdaroğlu. Thus, the possibility of HDP nominating a candidate was also reduced. The left began to openly defend Kılıçdaroğlu. Thus, the left lined up behind Kılıçdaroğlu. As if this move had not happened, wouldn’t the left still support Kılıçdaroğlu? Of course they would support it. But they did this more boldly and eliminated the possibility of their condemnation of him. Instead of pulling Kılıçdaroğlu to the left, the left tended to shift to the right, further to the right.
The purpose of this move is meaningful in civil war policies and war policies. The left tied itself up and destroyed the possibility of raising its voice and resisting in case war cries are raised and the election is cancelled. It is very difficult for resistance to develop without organized forces. This is what we call seeing the election without seeing the war and civil war policies.
This is within the politics of the civil war. While the Palace Regime is continuing with oppression and violence, the bourgeois opposition has always been responsible for suppressing the anger of the people with false hopes, telling people to wait for the election. This process occurred once again. And it’s obviously effective.
Also, with this move, the Joker Sister showed the lack of alternatives to those in the IYI Party who would not vote for Kılıçdaroğlu because he is Alevi. Thus, the Joker Sister also rewarded Kılıçdaroğlu for the support he gave to her in terms the deputies. Now, some of those who would not have voted for Kılıçdaroğlu in the IYI Party will vote for him.
7
Turkey is in an extremely serious economic and political crisis. The US’s hitman role in the international arena has made the Turkish state dependent on war policies. Neither the economic crisis nor these war policies have a solution within bourgeois politics.
This situation increases the fear of all forces of the Turkish state, including the bourgeois opposition, and the Palace Regime. For this reason, the desire to crush the resistance of the people, workers and laborers, women and youth with harsher methods is underway. This desire is also the reason why they have for a long time been instituting the policy to control the anger of the people, workers and laborers. This dual policy is expressed by two representatives. The first is brought into action by the Palace Regime, and the second is by the bourgeois opposition, which is supposedly opposed to it. Thus, it is as if an alternative is presented to the masses. Today, the annulment of the election for no apparent reason may lead to more serious reactions. However, canceling the elections with an appropriate way and method can be effective with a national disaster scenario. In this respect, it is necessary for the left to be added to the CHP queue and to disable its own independent policies. It is clear that they are trying to achieve this.
It’s an old saying, cheating never ends in the Ottoman Empire. The Palace Regime is adept at stealing the prophet from Allah’s pocket. For this reason, it would be a big mistake to feel like the job is done, and especially to leave the revolutionary line. It is essential to organize the will of workers and laborers, women and youth, in short, those who resist. This will cannot be handed over to others.
This situation is reminiscent of the left getting caught in Ecevit’s tail. The difference is that Ecevit was giving the signs of a more leftist attitude, now Kılıçdaroğlu is getting closer to the right.
We revolutionary socialists are responsible for organizing the line of resistance. This is what we must do.
We know that there are possibilities to overthrow the Palace Regime and to organize a general resistance. Of course it is difficult. But the revolution itself is not an easy process.
It is not possible to continue the struggle with a purely electoral agenda by being caught in crude illusions. This would be a big mistake. Instead, it is necessary to develop the existing line of resistance that does not fade despite oppression and violence. This line of resistance has to be more organized.
In reality, Erdoğan is already illegitimate. Not just because of his diploma. Not just because of his illness. He also stole the elections. The saying that “the ship has sailed” is a confession. But Erdoğan’s candidacy is also illegal. There is such a picture that even the election laws of the Turkish state are not clear in its 100th year. It is not a matter of winning elections by getting Syrians to vote etc. They’ve already done this. Those elections are also not legitimate. The issue is not a matter of 10 thousand votes or one hundred thousand votes. In reality, no matter who the candidate of the Palace Regime is, the votes he/she will receive in a democratic election are in the 10-20 percent band. The issue is so locked into an election scenario with paramilitary forces, in conditions of civil war, in state of emergency, eliminating all legal procedures. Nobody is foolish. Erdoğan has already lost. In which Western country of the world do democratic elections take place? This era is already over.
It is important to see the politics of war. In the geography we live in, US imperialism has put all kinds of war games into play. They have countless possibilities to create disorder in the Balkans, the Caucasus, the Black Sea, the Mediterranean, and the Middle East.
Masters, imperialists, their servants have no human values. There is no human value in the capitalist system. Capitalism comes to life by destroying humanity and dehumanizing human beings.
Therefore, the working class has no choice but to resist.
The power that will overthrow the system is the working class, the revolutionary workers. Today, in our country, possibilities for this are present.
A war that goes beyond elections is going on. In these conditions, the working class needs revolutionary vanguards.
The fronts are extremely clear. We revolutionary socialists will under no circumstances abandon the revolutionary line of the working class.
